Michael E. O’Hanlon

"Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed late in 2024 that artificial intelligence (AI) should never be empowered to decide to launch a nuclear war. 

"The groundwork for this excellent policy decision was laid over five years of discussions at the Track II U.S.-China Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and National Security convened by the Brookings Institution and Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy. 

"By examining several cases from the U.S.-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, one can see what might have happened if AI had existed back in that period and been trusted with the job of deciding to launch nuclear weapons or to preempt an anticipated nuclear attack —and had been wrong in its decisionmaking. 

"Given the prevailing ideas, doctrines, and procedures of the day, an AI system trained on that information (perhaps through the use of many imaginary scenarios that reflected the current conventional wisdom) might have decided to launch nuclear weapons, with catastrophic results."

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