Immanent by 2034

"A leading artificial intelligence expert has rolled back his timeline for AI doom, saying it will take longer than he initially predicted for AI systems to be able to code autonomously and thus speed their own development toward superintelligence.

"Daniel Kokotajlo, a former employee of OpenAI, sparked an energetic debate in April by releasing AI 2027, a scenario that envisions unchecked AI development leading to the creation of a superintelligence, which —after outfoxing world leaders —destroys humanity. 
 
"The scenario rapidly won admirers and detractors. The US vice-president, JD Vance, appeared to reference AI 2027 in an interview last May when discussing the US’s artificial intelligence arms race with China.

"Gary Marcus, an emeritus professor of neuroscience at New York University, called the piece a 'work of fiction' and various of its conclusions 'pure science fiction mumbo jumbo.'

"In their update, Kokotajlo and his co-authors revise their expectations for when AI might be able to code autonomously, putting this as likely to happen in the early 2030s, as opposed to 2027.

"The new forecast sets 2034 as the new horizon for superintelligence and does not contain a guess for when AI may destroy humanity."



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