More Complete Earth-System Modeling Approaches

  • First, current modeling approaches need the scope (i.e., coupling) to assess large-scale irreversible change, proximity to tipping points, and other unprecedented events that involve multiple Earth system components. 
  • The second need is long runs and/or large ensembles, in order to assess tail risks, especially the most extreme and rare (hence consequential) hazards or cascading events. 
  • Third, we need innovative ways of coupling the physical and human systems that capture weather and climate impacts currently missing in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). 
Advanced computing and artificial intelligence/machine learning approaches can be used to link different types of model together, or build emulators of one that can efficiently run within the other. 



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